02 February, 2009

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Reading an article about Angela Merkel reminded me of finishing my classification of politicians which I have in my drawer since quite some time: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Don't ask me why but somehow this movie title came to my mind. More serious it's the programmatic, the ideologist and the opportunist. Of course this classification isn't scientific at all, I just made it up during last year's US election campaign.

Let's start with the ideologist, the obvious example is George W. Bush. His 2 terms can be characterized by the ideology of the everlasting fight of Good vs. Evil. Unfortunately, for pursuing his goal of spreading democracy especially in the Middle East to "build a safer world" he regarded every means as justified - including those I consider to be preserved for the Evil:
Those methods, including the use of stress positions and forced nudity, continued to spread through the military detention system, and their use “damaged our ability to collect accurate intelligence that could save lives, strengthened the hand of our enemies, and compromised our moral authority.”

Not talking about all the problems that got out of focus, ignored and grew into crises on their own. Even looking back Bush shows hardly any sign of regret (and even less does Vice President Dick Cheney). I consider that very typical for people blinded by ideology.

The second characterization is opportunist. There is no ideology he blindly sticks to, but the lack of leadership and predictability is also the problem in these times of crisis - just as with German Chancellor Angela Merkel:
She put together a rescue package for banks that so far hasn't had much effect. She has come up with an economic stimulus package that may not be enough. She hasn't made a single major speech. There is no sign of a claim to leadership, whether in Germany, Europe or the world.

Former Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of the Green Party describes her style in an interview as follows:
Until now, if opinion polls are anything to judge by, this approach has served her well. She always takes positions that allow her to maintain a majority. However, in this global crisis, that is simply the wrong attitude. What is needed now is strategic, large-scale planning -- in the European spirit.

A more recent article is even more excoriating:
A major crisis actually presents an opportunity for a chancellor. Everyone is at a loss, everyone is plagued by uncertainty, and virtually everyone is waiting for someone to take charge. And what has Merkel done? She has joined those who are waiting. She has become the leader of the waiting game. [..] What counts for her is that she has a result. It doesn't matter what it is. It is typical of a chancellorship that searches for harmony but lacks leadership.

Of course her behavior could be interpreted simply as cautious - if she just wouldn't change her opinion too often. Not long ago environment was an important topic for the former Minister of Environment:
Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone out of her way to show herself as a climate saviour. In August 2007, she had herself photographed on a block of ice in Greenland in order to draw attention to the consequences of climate change. Just a short time before she helped to negotiate a global climate "roadmap" at the G-8 summit in Germany.

Now that's no longer valid since it might cost jobs? This argument sounds very familiar, just like the failed strategy of the US economy, in particular car industry. If only many experts would not see green technologies as a chance to create thousands of jobs. In my opinion she endangers Germany's leading position in environmental technologies and so jobs in the long run.

Or the economic crisis:
The chancellor seemed unsure of herself when it came to preventing the impending collapse of the banking system. [..] First she touted an international solution before eventually bowing to pressure from German banks and agreeing to a coordinated European approach. [..] Merkel also flip flopped when it came to the political consequences of the economic downturn. At first, her office announced that she and Steinbrück had agreed to bring forward a plan to make health insurance premiums tax-deductible. But then she dropped the plan when it came in for sharp criticism.

Sure, she is still by far preferable to French Omni-President Nicolas Sarkozy with his aimless actions for the sake of acting. But I'd like to know what she is actually up to.

Somewhere in the middle is the programmatic, with a general plan laying out the base for the politics, an idea, but not blindly sticking to it like an ideology. The means are chosen as the cases arise but according to the greater plan. For being successful this needs good judgment and a strong team of experts - and a strong leader for this team.

My hope is that the new US President Barack Obama will fulfill this role. So far he has laid out the general guideline in his speeches: being a president for all US Americans, no matter what descent, what religion, what region or walk of life. The speech in Berlin showed that he doesn't intend to limit the guideline to the US, but also apply them internationally.

He has also chosen his team of experts for which he received praise from left and right (actually more from right since the lefts are kind of disappointed he didn't choose more radical candidates). He now has to prove his judgment and his leadership of this alleged team of rivals.

As little scientific my classification is as blurred are the borders between the groups. Bush was forced by the "circumstances" aka economic crisis to give up the neoconservative ideology and rather spend a whole lot of money to bail out banks - which just underlines his failure even more. A weak leader will switch from his program to opinion polls as guideline of his politics just when leadership and guidance is needed the most. (That is what I think actually happened with Angela Merkel.)

The last 2 months were a lame duck season not only in the US but also in Germany if not Europe. Everybody seemed to wait for the inauguration of Barack Obama. Now Obama made an impressive start. Let's see how it is going to work out.

Update: There is a new article on Angela Merkel's failure:
[..] A chancellor without a compass, a head of government without authority and a party leader who lacks the support of her own people.

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